State of The Global Economy March 11 2024

March 11, 2024

                                                                                                                                               

The State of The Global Economy Address

A Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective

By Patrick T Bulger   

                                       

Risk is currently viewed as high.

 

Institute for Supply Management

(ISM) Manufacturing Index at 47.8 is in contraction.

Jobs

Not Strong.

See my posts, LinkedIn, X.

Bankruptcies

Rising both here and Canada.

Canada significant.

Consumer

Sentiment down.

Poor Retail, Nov Dec revised down.

Delinquencies up.

Savings rate down.

Banks here and globally

New York, Japan, Germany, issues due to Our Commercial Real Estate.

Collateral issues not yet fully recognized.

Powell quoted last week, more to come.

Need for capital

Lease ReFi,

Corp Junk Refi (Think Zombie Co meets much higher refi rates).

Transports

Appear weak beyond seasonality.

Global

China, Euro area, Japan showing outright recessionary potential.

Bank issues are not limited to the U.S.

Technical

The view is, broad risk is high on negative divergence.

Markets can peak differently from global economic fundamentals. 

Timing/Guessing is not high end capital management.

 

Why?

Because, quality, "Portfolio First" decision making starts with Knowing Your Data.

 

Boutique Investment Advisory, for You, the scaled leader.

You and your portfolio deserve this.

Save Time.  Position Quality.  I do this work for you.

 

Schedule a no obligation call:

https://go.oncehub.com/PatrickTBulgerPhone

 

The goal is to be profitable through what is viewed as normal, declining, end of cycle data.

Macro defensive with micro flexibility is viewed as prudent. 

Find out how portfolios are being positioned and why.

 

Visit me on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/patricktbulger/

Visit me on X/Twitter https://twitter.com/patricktbulger

Visit me at https://www.patricktbulger.com/ 

 

 

Pinpoint  orig. 20240311 20240301614