Newsletter July 7

July 7, 2023

A Data Brief from a Distilled Perspective

by Patrick T Bulger                                          

Is Crash Actually A Landing?

Tangible View:  Tightness Reappearing, Intervention Watch, Black Swan Watch, During Global Weakness.

Bond Signals appear to be giving indication of something happening, as of the "Now".  We'll see.

Liquidity numbers have shown signs of stress.

Office real estate looks to become a problem.

Mortgage Rates & Treasury Yields near break point...Pressure back on balance sheet?

Inversions appear to be at levels not seen since the 80's.

Currencies Indicate tightness, nearing point of late 2022 intervention.

Where is broad demand?  Breadth?  Credit Freeze?  How are you accounting for these?

Derivatives market in full push mode.  Orange County, AIG anyone?            

Other areas of concern, China and China Debt/Development Sector.  I view it as not solved and pressure rising.

It definitely gives the feeling of not soft landing and it's global. 

Note: Small data lifts in volatile streams are not trends until they stand the test of time and size of move.

 

The Actual Numbers can tell a story,

What you don't see can be bad.  What the numbers say can be opportunistic.

 

Be Early, Be Prepared, If You Care.

Reach out on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/patricktbulger/

Or the Contact Us tab at the top of this page.

 

The goal is to be profitable through what is viewed as normal, declining, end of cycle data.

The positioning remains defensive as economic trends are viewed as down,

while volatility is expected to rise.

Hence, remaining macro defensive with micro flexibility is viewed as prudent.

Speculation in a downward data flow can lead to poor results.

Find out how portfolios are being positioned for the forward look and why.

Thanks for stopping in,

Patrick T Bulger

I use a proprietary system that refines thousands of data points into a 12 Step Process of Dynamic, Cross-Asset, Capital Management, designed to be risk appropriate and opportunistic with efficiencies well beyond static buy and hold.

I offer dependability and technical proficiency to leaders and founders who recognize the value of process, quality and delegation.

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Direct: 954 478 0311      Fax: 954 256 8270      Email: PBulger@summitfn.com